Our future is surprizingly fuzzy

In a past life, I was involved in some prospective work for a think tank thing called Cinum. A lot of public money and some top notch decision makers were supporting a process that was expected to turn the ever-expanding complexity of our interconnected civilizations into some short “scenarios”. That approach has a lot to do with true science-fiction. Crude facts prove that we have reached a state of development where predictive work is almost impossible to acheive: for example, the airline traffic evolution for 2006 passed the 11% mark when the gross inflation was only gaining 2.9%, despite the price evolution induced by the oil market.